Stat Pack: Staying Power

Last week’s late defeat to Sligo Rovers at the RSC was very hard for Blues fans to take, particularly on the back of going out of the cup with another late goal in Cork the previous week. It’s far from the first time the team have suffered in the final minutes of games this season and that’s an issue that needs to be addressed quickly.

One pretty shocking statistic that has had a major impact on Waterford’s season is that they have been outscored 22 to 7 in the final fifteen minutes of the combined 28 league games to date. The Blues have conceded eleven goals from the 84th minute onwards this season, including five in injury-time. Those concessions have seen nine points squandered with late collapses from winning positions against St Pat’s and Cork, two points dropped at home to Drogheda and Friday’s winning goal for Sligo.  

We need only look at the type of goals that have been conceded in that time period to support a contention that stamina appears to be an issue. There have been unnecessary free kicks and corner kicks given away which have been punished. Then there was the penalty kick which turned the game in Cork’s favour in Turner’s Cross on Easter Monday. Those initial errors have been compounded, at times then, by poor marking. Waterford’s defence set up perfectly to handle the 79th minute free kick in the cup game in Cork two weeks ago – a one-man wall to prevent a near post shot or the two men over the ball working it short into the box, three players covering zonally, and each attacker being man-marked. It was textbook set-piece defending only that Trae Coyle lost concentration and left his man, Kaedyn Kamara, completely free to head home the winning goal. The Blues winger clearly knew his role, but, for whatever reason, failed to fulfil it.

 

 

The causes aren’t immediately clear and may be a combination of several factors. It’s a young squad on the whole so perhaps they don’t have the mental and physical stamina of veteran players, but Andy Boyle and Jordan Rossiter were on the pitch at the end of last week’s loss to Sligo even if Pádraig Amond had been withdrawn. The sports scientists could tell us whether Waterford are matching teams for sprints, energy and fitness late in games, though it doesn’t look that way to the naked eye. Then, of course, there’s the issue of squad depth and whether management can call on like-for-like substitutes with the quality to create or protect a lead.

The front three of Amond, Tommy Lonergan and Conan Noonan have been very successful with twelve, six and five league goals respectively. That accomplishment needs to be celebrated, but there’s a consequent over-reliance on their goals. That trio have scored 20 of Waterford’s last 24 goals in all competitions. Only Grant Horton and Sam Glenfield (and an own goal) have also contributed in the league, plus one for Coyle in the cup. John Coleman will want his midfielders chipping in with a few goals while the lack of production from defenders recently points to very disappointing set-pieces throughout the summer. 

That also highlights another serious issue for the squad, namely the lack of impact from the bench. In 64 games since returning to the Premier Division, the Blues have only had one goal scored by a substitute. In 2024, it took until the second last match of the season for a substitute to score. That was Sam Glenfield’s powerful late equaliser in the home game against Bohemians in October. No substitute has scored a league goal for Waterford so far in 2025. When managers have turned to the bench for salvation, their prayers haven’t been answered. Muhammadu Faal showed some promise last week which may help with depth in attack and competition for places.

 

 

One positive statistic is that the Blues have scored in the first ten minutes of games a very healthy six times this season. They have been at their best in the first half in general with 19 of 33 league goals scored before the break (and another four within the first five minutes of the second half). Unfortunately, as games have worn on, returns have diminished. 

On four agonising occasions in 2025, Waterford have lost games in which they led. The first was under Keith Long when a 1-0 advantage with two minutes left at home to St Pat’s in March turned to defeat. The next was Matt Lawlor’s first fixture in charge when only one minute of normal time remained by the time Evan McLaughlin equalised from the penalty spot for Cork, who went on to win in injury time. The most forgivable one was the 3-1 home defeat to Shamrock Rovers in mid-May. John Coleman’s Blues took a tenth-minute lead, but were undone by a goalkeeping error in the 76th minute with Rovers adding a third to put an unfair slant on the final score. The final, raw instance was last Friday when a half-time lead against Sligo was surrendered meekly at the RSC.

Another worrying point is that Waterford have only equalised three times in league matches all season. They tend to either take the lead themselves (scoring the opening goal on fifteen occasions) or, if they fall behind, fail to mount a comeback. The Blues turned an early deficit into a win at home to Cork in March and rescued a point in Richmond Park against St Pat’s in May. They also equalised through Horton at home to Shelbourne in June, but ultimately, conceded an equaliser themselves later on in a 2-2 draw.

The team will need to show a lot of heart, backed by supporters, on Friday and they have shown before that they can bounce back from disappointment. City showed more fight than the Blues in the cup tie and derby wins usually go to the team with more hunger and desire. After two bad losses in a row, the players and management need to deliver in a way that we know they can.